Wednesday , September 08, 2010

   
 

Circumstances change!

Circumstances are the rulers of the weak; they are but the instruments of the wise.  Samuel Lover.

Looks like the bulls may have to settle down a bit. On a day when the world markets were a bit skittish India managed to outperform. The breadth was positive, partly thanks to persistent surge in small caps. Turnover was also good. Most of the buying came from local funds even as FIIs were net sellers. The momentum in Small Caps is being driven by retail investors.

The big question is can this rally sustain? At least today we expect some softening due to fresh weakness in global markets. US and European markets fell amid renewed concerns over the health of the eurozone banks. Asian markets are also down this morning.

There are reports that Europe’s much hyped “stress tests” weren’t tough enough and that the strength of region’s financial system remains suspect. And, if the advance in the yen and gold are any indication risk aversion is still high.

Global factors and events will continue to drive the local sentiment, apart from liquidity. The near-term trading range on the Nifty is 54005700. The market will meet resistance around 5650 and around 5680 before hitting 5700. Near-term support is likely at around 5550.

Bank of Canada will take a call on rates tomorrow. The Bank of England will review its policy on Thursday.

The RBI meets on Sept. 16 to review its policy rates. The latest IIP data will be out on Sept. 10 and August inflation on Sept. 14.

IT firms could be in action again amid reports that the state of Ohio has banned outsourcing of government contracts. Sun Pharma is the stock to watch out for as the Supreme Court of Israel has announced a favourable verdict in the case against Taro Pharma. Oil PSUs might also gain amid reports that the Government has increased petrol and diesel prices by a few paise.

FIIs were net sellers of Rs208.8mn in the cash segment on Tuesday (provisionally), according to the NSE web site. Local funds were net buyers of Rs4.41bn. In the F&O segment, the foreign funds were net buyers at Rs22.16bn. FIIs were net buyers of Rs10.39bn in the cash segment on Monday, as per SEBI's web site. Mutual funds were net buyers of Rs3.54bn on the same day.

Important News Snippets For The Day:

Petrol and diesel prices across the country will increase by 913 paise a litre with effect from Tuesday midnight, after the government decided to increase the commission to petrol pump dealers.

Maruti Suzuki plans to invest around Rs19.25bn for setting up a third plant at its second facility in Manesar.

Tata Steel is looking for a buyer for its South African unit after agreeing to sell its Teesside operations in the UK.

JSW Steel's crude steel production in August increased 3% to 539,000 tonnes against the 521,000 tonnes logged in the same period last year.

BHEL plans to leverage its balance sheet and reserves to set up an equipment financing arm through a JV.

HDFC has relaunched its teaser home loan scheme, while SBI may extend its own.

SBI plans to raise Rs5bn via sale of retail bonds.

Wipro expects higher US visa costs to have a moderate impact on its operating margins in the current financial year.

Adani Power is expected to gain up to Rs10mn/day as the Finance Ministry has reduced Customs duty on electricity generated and supplied from an SEZ into a Domestic Tariff Area (DTA).

Ashok Leyland said it plans to raise up to6bn in long-term debt this fiscal to fund its capital expenditure plans till 2011-12.

Essar Oil, may start supplying gas to the Durgapur facility of Phillips Carbon Black from its Ranigunj (East) CBM block, beginning October.

SpiceJet has announced the commencement of its international operations, with its first flights to Kathmandu and Colombo ready to take off in four weeks.

KEC International has signed a definitive agreement to acquire Texasbased SAE Towers Holdings for US$95mn.

Neyveli Lignite is hoping to take part in the ultra mega power project (UMPP) that is to come up at Cheyyur in Tamil Nadu.

Shipping Corporation of India plans to purchase a stake in a shipyard to diversify its business.

Telecom operators in the country added 17 million subscribers in July this year, taking the total number of mobile users in the country to 652.4 million.

The country’s tea exports fell by nearly 20% to Rs2.1bn in July.

The Government on Tuesday exuded confidence that the new company law will be enacted by the end of this fiscal.

Asian Markets on Tuesday:

Japanese stocks were sharply lower after the yen hit a fresh 15-year high against the US dollar overnight, weighing on exporters.

The Nikkei Stock Average was down nearly 2% at 9,044 while the broader Topix fell 1.4% to 822.9. Export-focused stock suffered after the dollar fell to an intraday low of ¥83.49.

Hong Kong shares dropped early Wednesday as renewed worries about European banks weighed on sentiment. Heavyweight China Mobile fell sharply on a report Vodafone Group is selling its 3.2% stake in the Chinese mobile-services giant.

The Hang Seng Index fell 1% to 21,186.49, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index gave up 1.5% to 11,782.81.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index lost 1.2% to 120.36 as of 11:40 a.m. in Tokyo.

Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index dipped after the gauge sank 1.2% in New York.

The yen, which reached the highest value since June 1995 versus the dollar yesterday, gained versus all 16 major counterparts on higher demand for Japan’s currency as a refuge.

Gold was less than 1% away from a record high. Crude oil and copper declined amid weaker demand for commodities.

US Markets on Tuesday:

US stocks slid after an extended weekend as renewed worries about European banks weighed on financial stocks and investors sought refuge in safe-haven assets such as the dollar, Treasurys and gold.

After tallying its best pre-Labor Day week since 1990, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 107.24 points, or 1%, to 10,340.69, with 26 of its 30 components losing ground.

The S&P 500 Index shed 12.67 points, or 1.2%, to 1,091.84, with financials weighing the most heavily among its 10 industry groups.

The Nasdaq Composite Index declined 24.86 points, or 1.1%, to 2,208.89.

The dollar gained against the euro and gold, and US Treasury prices rallied.

Trading volume has been particularly low in the US lately, and did not show any immediate signs of picking back up as traders returned from their vacations after the Labor Day holiday. Three stocks fell for each issue on the rise on the New York Stock Exchange, where volume neared 542 million.

Treasury yields held steady after the government's sale of $33 billion in 3-year notes, awarded at a record low 0.79% rate. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note, a measure used in setting interest rates on mortgages and other consumer loans, fell to 2.600% as its price rose.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures gained $8.20 to end at $1,259.3 an ounce, topping its record close reached in June.

Crude oil futures shed 51 cents to end at $74.09 a barrel.

On Friday, US stocks tallied their first positive weekly showing since early August, with the Dow up 2.9% for the week as it edged back into positive turf for the year. But Tuesday's losses quickly turned the index back into the red.

September is traditionally a softer month for US stocks, and so far Wall Street has escaped that. But lingering worries won't diminish until we get more indicators that show the decline in economic activity is ebbing and beginning to turn around again.

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve will release its so-called Beige Book, offering a glimpse at regional economic activity, while on Thursday the government releases its weekly count of those filing initial claims for unemployment benefits.

On Tuesday, investors questioned the shape of the European banks, because reports said their sovereign debt holdings are weaker than previously thought.

The renewed worries came after an analysis in Wall Street Journal that said Europe's stress tests - aimed at measuring the health of the continent's financial sector - understated major banks' holdings of government debt. Financial stocks sank after the report.

President Barack Obama will introduce a new $200 billion tax cut on Wednesday that will allow businesses to write off all new investments in equipment made between now and the end of 2011.

A reading on hiring from employment firm Manpower showed that employers are likely to remain reluctant to boost hiring in the fourth quarter.

Shares of Oracle gained after the business software maker said it has hired former Hewlett-Packard CEO Mark Hurd as its president. Later in the day, HP filed suit to block Hurd from the taking the job.

Meanwhile, Barclays shares sank after the British bank announced its CEO John Varley will retire March 31. Bob Diamond, the bank's U.S.-born president and investment banking chief, will replace Varley.

European Markets on Tuesday:

European stock markets snapped their recent winning streak to close lower, weighed down by losses in the banking and commodities sectors. European equities also suffered losses as worse-than-expected German manufacturing data show ed a decline in new orders.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index shed 0.5% to 259.76. In the UK, the FTSE 100 index closed down 0.6% to 5,407.82, while the French CAC 40 index fell 1.1% to 3,643.81. The German DAX 30 index dipped 0.6% to 6,117.89.

Banks were among the biggest losers in Europe as regulators met in Basel to finalize new global rules on capital requirements.

Europe’s highly touted stress tests of major banks earlier this summer understated holdings of potentially risky government debt, The Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday.

The euro suffered after the German Banking Association said that the country’s 10 biggest lenders may need another €105bn of additional capital.

Germany's Die Zeit reported late on Monday that banks could be required to hold a Tier 1 capital level of 9% under new rules dubbed Basel III, potentially rising to 12% in boom years in order to build reserves to pay for a downturn.

The Federal Association of German Banks had estimated that the country's ten largest lenders could need as much as 105 billion euros ($135 billion) of extra capital under planned Basel rules.

Shares in Credit Agricole fell. French banks have some of the highest exposures to risky European countries such as Greece and other domestic lenders also fell sharply.

Barclays declined in London after it also announced that Robert Diamond, the head of its investment banking arm, will take over as chief executive of the entire group next year. Diamond will succeed John Varley, who plans to step down next March.

Stephen Green, chairman of HSBC Holdings will leave the bank to become the UK trade and investment minister. Shares of HSBC outperformed the rest of the sector, losing just 0.1%.

Mining stocks finished the day in the red after the Australian Labor Party gained the support of enough independent lawmakers to form a minority government, raising worries that a proposed mining tax would be put in place.

 

No bandh for bulls…Nifth ends above 5600

After a remarkable Monday, the Indian market lost some steam amid lack of decisive cues from the Asian and the European markets. Despite that, the NSE Nifty managed to end above the 5600 mark - hitting the mark for the first time since January 2008.

"Cement heavyweights like ACC, Ambuja Cement, India Cement and others surged in a lackluster market amid reports that cement prices in South India have risen by Rs25 to Rs40 per 50-kg bag," says Amar .

Capital Goods, IT and Metal stocks led from the front, even the Mid-Cap and the Small-Cap stocks were in demand.

The Sensex gained 85 points to close at 18,645. The index hit an intra-day high of 18,711 and an intra-day low of 18,571.

The NSE Nifty rose 15 points to close at 5,592 after touching a high of 5,625 and a low of 5,571.

Among the BSE sectoral indices ended in the green, the BSE Capital Goods index was the top gainer the index was up 1.3%, followed by BSE IT index (up 1%) and BSE Metal index (up 0.8%) and BSE Teck index (up 0.8%).

Even the broader indices ended with gains, the BSE Mid-Cap index was up 0.2% and BSE Small-Cap index was up 0.6%.

Markets in Asia ended mixed; the Nikkei in Japan lost 0.8%, Australia's S&P/ASX ended flat, the Hang Seng index in Hong Kong added by 0.2% and the Shanghai SE Composite edged higher by 0.2%.

The European indices were trading slightly lower, the DAX in Germany was down 0.8%, the CAC 40 index in France was down 1.2% and the FTSE in the UK was down 1%.

Outside the frontline indices, the big gainers in the broader market were Madras Cement, India Cement, Gujarat NRE Coke, Godrej Ind and GMDC. On the other hand, losers included EXIDE Ind, Petronet LNG, Koutons and Sterling Bio.

TEN MOST ACTIVE FUTURES
Expiry Date:
September 30, 2010
TEN MOST ACTIVE OPTIONS
Expiry Date:
September 30, 2010

Symbol

No.of Cont Traded

Last price

Open Interest

% chg in Op.Int

TATASTEEL

38,462

574.25

21951000

-3.74

RELIANCE

35,090

963.55

29640250

-3.55

TATAMOTORS

20,847

1,043.85

14240000

2.25

ICICIBANK

18,597

1,030.95

18134750

1.20

LT

15,619

1,873.25

4225875

4.72

JPASSOCIAT

15,095

118.95

36436000

3.71

ACC

14,392

951.15

2449000

10.46

SBIN

14,229

2,824.00

5077375

1.29

JSWSTEEL

14,030

1,223.60

5020500

-4.79

INDIACEM

12,806

116.85

14290000

13.04

Symbol

Option Type

Strike price

No.of Cont Traded

Open Interest

% chg in Op.In

TATASTEEL

CA

580

8,934

2558500

140.01

RELIANCE

CA

980

6,016

1215250

-7.88

TATASTEEL

CA

600

5,396

1150500

54.33

RELIANCE

CA

1,000

5,318

2570250

-4.70

UNITECH

CA

85

3,715

6680000

21.99

RELIANCE

CA

960

3,154

650250

-2.80

RELIANCE

CA

950

2,164

440000

-25.68

TATASTEEL

CA

620

2,156

276500

81.91

JPASSOCIAT

CA

120

1,980

1882000

-12.79

LT

CA

1,900

1,977

137750

96.79

SUPPORT & RESISTANCE LEVEL

September 2010 

COMPANY NAME

S3

S2

S1

CLOSING PRICE

R1

R2

R3

Sensex Index

18,553

18,575

18,599

18,645

18,691

18,715

18,737

Nifty Index

5,568

5,577

5,586

5,604

5,622

5,631

5,640

ABB Ltd

778

779

781

784

788

789

791

ACC

916

927

939

962

985

997

1,008

Ambuja Cements

128

130

132

136

140

142

144

Bajaj Holdings

801

806

810

819

828

833

837

BHEL

2,413

2,418

2,423

2,434

2,445

2,450

2,455

Bharti Airte

339

340

342

344

346

347

348

Cipla

309

310

311

313

315

316

317

Dabur India

212

213

214

216

218

219

219

GAIL India

457

459

461

466

470

472

474

Grasim Ind.

2,109

2,130

2,152

2,195

2,238

2,261

2,282

HCL Tech

396

397

399

402

405

407

408

HDFC Bank

2,177

2,182

2,188

2,199

2,210

2,216

2,222

Hero Honda

1,693

1,697

1,701

1,709

1,717

1,721

1,725

Hindalco

177

178

179

181

182

183

184

Hindustan Unilever

268

269

269

271

272

273

273

ICICI Bank

1,026

1,029

1,032

1,039

1,045

1,048

1,051

Infosys Tech

2,823

2,833

2,844

2,865

2,886

2,897

2,907

ITC Ltd

165

165

165

166

167

167

168

L&T

1,845

1,853

1,861

1,876

1,892

1,900

1,907

MTNL

63

63

63

64

64

65

65

M&M

613

617

621

629

637

642

646

Maruti Suzuki

1,299

1,303

1,307

1,315

1,323

1,328

1,331

Mahindra Satyam

92

92

93

94

96

96

97

National Alumin

400

401

403

407

410

412

414

ONGC

1,331

1,336

1,342

1,354

1,365

1,371

1,377

Oriental Bank

428

430

432

436

440

442

444

PNB

1,203

1,207

1,211

1,219

1,226

1,231

1,234

Ranbaxy Labs

497

500

503

509

514

517

520

Reliance Capital

785

788

790

795

800

802

805

Reliance Comm

157

159

160

163

166

167

169

Reliance Energy

1,030

1,033

1,036

1,042

1,048

1,051

1,054

Reliance Inds

951

954

957

962

968

971

973

R Power

156

156

157

158

159

159

160

Siemens India

701

704

707

713

719

722

724

SBI

2,810

2,817

2,824

2,837

2,851

2,858

2,864

TCS

859

862

865

871

878

881

884

Tata Motors

1,019

1,024

1,029

1,039

1,049

1,055

1,059

Tata Power

1,228

1,238

1,249

1,270

1,291

1,302

1,312

Tata Steel

567

569

572

576

581

584

586

Tata comm

333

334

336

339

341

343

344

Wipro

404

405

406

408

410

412

413

Wire And Wireless

14

14

14

14

15

15

15

Zee Entertainment

287

288

290

293

296

298

299

NOTE : S1, S2 and S3 are critical support levels while R1, R2 and R3 are resistance levels. Trading call depends on the price band

Leader Speak

Babulal Varma, Managing Director, Omkar Realtors & Developers Pvt Ltd
Speaking with Yash Ved of IIFL Babulal Varma says, "We are in the process of raising Rs6bn for three more projects."...More

Alan Greenspan, American Economist
Speaking with Prannoy Roy of NDTV, Alan Greenspan gave his views on world economy and US financial crisis...More

Rajan Krishnan, CFO, Baroda Pioneer AMC Limited
Replying to Yash Ved of IIFL, "At current valuations, the Indian markets are enjoying a premium in-line with historical averages and thus are not very expensive."...More

Dr. Abhijit Desai, Managing Director, Evolve Med Spa
Replying to Anurag More of IIFL, Dr.Abhijit Desai, says "We are raising around Rs651mn via IPO."...More

Manish Mandhana, Jt Managing Director, Mandhana Industries
Replying to Yash Ved of IIFL, Manish Mandhana says, "With the revival in the economies of US and EU, exports are expected to pick up and grow at a CAGR of 4.6%"...More

Mr. Harish Cherukuri, Managing Director, Priyadarshini Spinning Mills Ltd.
Replying to Anurag More of IIFL, Harish Cherukuri, said, "The company plans to raise money from the market to execute the hydro power project."...More

Read More Leader Speak...

Currency Movement

Sep 07,
2010
Sep 08,
2010
% chg
Rupee to Dollar

46.84

46.55

0.63

Rupee to Euro

59.45

59.03

0.72

Commodities Movement

Sep 07,
2010
Sep 08,
2010
% chg
Gold std. (Rs/10gm)

19,040

18,965

0.40

Silver (Rs/kg)

31,150

31,235

-0.27

Crude Oil ($ per barrel)

73.70

74.09

-0.53

Global Indicators

Index
Sep 07,
2010
Sep 08,
2010
% chg
Sensex

18,645.06

18,560.05

0.46

Nifty

5,604.00

5,576.95

0.49

Dow Jones

10,340.69

10,447.93

-1.03

Nasdaq

2,208.89

2,233.75

-1.11

Stock in Momentum

Top Gaining Companies (BSE-200)

%

Madras Cements

14.11

Ambuja Cements

7.81

Ultratech Cement

7.70

Gujarat NRE Coke

7.31

ACC

6.67

Godrej Ind

6.29

Top Losing Companies (BSE-200)

%

United Breweries

-3.91

Exide Industries

-2.72

Petronet LNG

-2.48

Ranbaxy Lab

-2.17

Unitech

-2.04

Sterling Biotech

-2.00

Daily Market Watch
Positive Breakouts (BSE-200)
Company Last
Price
Mov
Avg
10d
% chg Mov Avg 20d
United Spirits

1,526

1,461

4.44

1,438

Sterling Biotech

113

108

4.21

107

Great Eastern Shipping

316

304

3.68

305

Gujarat State Petro

121

117

3.64

115

Bajaj Hindusthan

122

118

3.05

120

Negative Breakouts (BSE-200)
Company Last
Price
Mov
Avg
10d
% chg Mov Avg 20d
Patni Computer

454

463

-1.94

459

Glenmark Pharma

281

286

-1.75

280

HPCL

515

524

-1.67

512

Edelweiss Capital

50

51

-0.38

53

BHEL

2,435

2,436

-0.04

2,459

In Focus Stories

A new deal for an old gadget
This is because they usually resell to corporates or in smaller towns after giving the device a makeover. Whichever option you pick, the important thing to remember is that gizmos are sold at market operating price (MoP), not maximum retail price (MRP)...More

Equity markets....contrarians up for the second month?
The S&P500 futures drove easily through 1098 pts. (a minimum target after defending a support at 1037 points) and are on their way towards 1147 pts...More

Equity markets...unexpected rise in the ISM
Interestingly the US equity indices moved higher after Wall Street opening ahead of the ISM release (and sort of neglecting a bearish ADP)...More

The BSE is working to develop products in debt, currency
The BSE's Investor Protection Fund provides up to Rs 15 lakh in case of defaults by brokers. The number of defaults has also come down substantially...More

Global markets – fear of the data
A key level of 1037 pts. on the S&P500 futures is back on the agenda and should it be broken, the index may go down to 1003,6 pts., dragging other markets with it...More

Binge on bargains
In addition, the phone flaunts a one-year warranty (though you could buy a new one without batting an eyelid), a torch, phonebook capacity of 200 numbers and SMS storage of 20 messages...More

 For More Articles

Industry Newsletters

Automobile Newsletter - August 23 to August 27, 2010

Aviation Newsletter - August 23 to August 27, 2010

Economy Round Up - August 23 to August 27, 2010

IT Newsletter - August 23 to August 27, 2010

Infrastructure Newsletter - August 23 to August 27, 2010

Mergers & Acquisition Round Up - August 23 to August 27, 2010

Pharmaceutical Newsletter - August 23 to August 27, 2010

Real Estate Round Up - August 23 to August 27, 2010

Retail Newsletter - August 23 to August 27, 2010

Corporate Snippets

Maruti Suzuki plans to invest around Rs19.25bn for setting up a third plant at its second facility in Manesar. (BS)

Tata Steel, seeking a greater role of the government in promoting Indian industry, has called for an ultra mega steel plant policy, on the lines of the similarly named policy to promote the power sector. (BS)

Tata Steel is looking for a buyer for its South African unit after agreeing to sell its Teesside operations in the UK. (BS)

Tata Steel scouting for iron ore, coal mines abroad. (BL)

JSW Steel's crude steel production in August increased 3% to 539,000 tonnes against the 521,000 tonnes logged in the same period last year. (BL)

BHEL plans to leverage its balance sheet and reserves to set up an equipment financing arm through a JV. (BL)

Restructuring of financial services is the first priority for L&T, according to its Chief Financial Officer (CFO), Mr Y.M. Deosthalee. (BL)

HDFC has re-launched its teaser home loan scheme, while SBI may extend its own. (BS)

SBI plans to raise Rs5bn via sale of retail bonds. (BL)

Wipro expects higher US visa costs to have a moderate impact on its operating margins in the current financial year as it may pass the increased cost on to its clients by increasing the billing rates. (BS)

With the Union Ministry of Finance reducing Customs duty on electricity generated and supplied from an SEZ into a Domestic Tariff Area (DTA) or non-processing areas of an SEZ, Adani Power is expected to gain up to Rs10mn/day. (BL)

Ashok Leyland said it plans to raise up to6bn in long-term debt this fiscal to fund its capital expenditure plans till 2011-12. (ET)

Essar Oil, may start supplying gas to the Durgapur facility of Phillips Carbon Black from its Ranigunj (East) CBM block, beginning October. (BL)

Aditya Birla Nuvo has infused Rs3bn into its NBFC Aditya Birla Finance (ABF) to fund its two-pronged expansion plans. (FE)

Man Industries has secured orders worth Rs12bn from various international and domestic companies such as GAIL. (BL)

SpiceJet has announced the commencement of its international operations, with its first flights to Kathmandu and Colombo ready to take off in four weeks. (BS)

KEC International has signed a definitive agreement to acquire Texas-based SAE Towers Holdings for US$95mn. (BS)

Neyveli Lignite is hoping to take part in the ultra mega power project (UMPP) that is to come up at Cheyyur in Tamil Nadu. (BS)

Shipping Corporation of India plans to purchase a stake in a shipyard to diversify its business. (ET)

The investigation by the Serious Fraud Investigation Office (SFIO) into the alleged financial irregularities to the tune of Rs10bn by Austral Coke and Projects is likely to be completed by January, 2011. (ET)

State Bank of Travancore said it has raised benchmark prime lending rate by 25 basis points to 12.75% with effect from September 3. (FE)

Kale Consultants said its board has approved the sale of logistics business to Kale Logistics on slump-sale basis. (FE)

Economy Snippets

Several Indian companies might have to set aside 2% of their average net profits during the preceding three years to meet corporate social responsibility (CSR) spending requirements as the ministry of corporate affairs has agreed to the suggestion. (BS)

Petrol and diesel prices across the country will increase by 9-13 paise a litre with effect from Tuesday midnight, after the government decided to increase the commission to petrol pump dealers. (BS)

Telecom operators in the country added 17 million subscribers in July this year, taking the total number of mobile users in the country to 652.4 million. (ET)

The country’s tea exports fell by nearly 20% to Rs2.1bn in July. (ET)

The government on Tuesday exuded confidence that the new company law will be enacted by the end of this fiscal. (ET)

 

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